This month on the 13th I will be taking photos in front of city library and also I will be having a photo shoot on the 21th on the city lake. Come down and see what I can do get your picture taken.  Hope to see you there.

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The “Stress Test” Challenge: Transparency & Intellectual Integrity

FDIC Chairman Shiela Bair said yesterday that the “stress test” would help the government determine how the big banks will fare in the event that the economy worsens. But before we get to any forward-looking measurements, the investing community deserves an update on the current status of the balance sheets of Wall Street’s once-elite financial institutions. As one critic of the banking stimulus plans in the UK questioned over the weekend, “how can the regulators decide whether the banks need to be nationalized or not without a publicly verifiable valuation methodology?” To which, this writer should add: Does anyone in authority have the audacity, since audacity is what is required now, to define a methodology, in written form, in the first place?

For all practical purposes, the stress test to be detailed, in one form or another, by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will turn out to be a Trojan Horse, deflecting the market’s attention away from the factual reality of today to a set of “what-if” assumptions derived from forecasts on the domestic and global economy. The constituents of the stress on the financial system are well-known at this juncture: (1) a sharp deterioration in counterparty risk; (2) trillions of derivative contracts which defy any mark-to-market quantification; (3) collapsing asset values right across the investment spectrum; and (4) hopelessly inadequate loan-delinquency provisions. So what is required at the outset is comprehensive disclosure on the health of balance sheets within the context of facts as they present themselves today, not on the basis of what may or not happen in the future.





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Alert: 5-YR US Treasury CDS spread at 95-105 bps; next target 130-140.